The good news for the automotive industry is that it is expecting a worldwide burst of growth. The bad news: many middle-class suppliers are not able to keep up with this dynamic and will lose their self-employment.
“In the next 15 years, this might concern up to 20 percent of the middle-class suppliers”, a study by car-expert Ferdinand Dudenhöffer from the University of Duisburg-Essen shows.
Based on his calculations, 57 millions cars will be sold this year. Until 2025, the number should rise to 91 million. Interestingly, the markets with the greatest growth are positioned in Asia. Until 2025, the sales in China and India will be accounting for about 40 percent of the whole world market. One reason is the low vehicle density in Asia. For example: from 1000 Chinese people only 24 (2.4%) have got a car. In comparison: from 1000 Germans, 523(52.3%) have a car.
Those who want to keep up with the growing process must expand to Asia and work in cooperation with the factories there, says Peter Faulhaber, head of the consultancy “Struktur Management Partner” in Cologne, who was also involved in the study. “To supply China with exports from Germany is illusionary”, Faulhaber says. A survey amongst 180 suppliers, car and bank managers showed that the middle-class suppliers strongly underestimate this dynamic. They plan with too little shares of sales for Asia.
In conclusion: Those who miss the growth in Asia will be unable to keep up with the market and lose market shares. Five percent sales growth per year will be needed in order to not lose shares. Those who can’t achieve these five percent downgrades his cost position and takes the risk to become a candidate for takeover. Experts say that it is necessary to develop a fitting strategy for the Asian market to prevent this.
What is your assessment? Will Asia have taken over the majority of the world market by 2025?















